A Guide to Conspiracy Theories

Kirk Straughen

(Investigator 198, 2021 May)


Conspiracies do happen. There is, however, a considerable difference between an actual conspiracy such as the Watergate scandal involving President Nixon and a conspiracy theory.
 
A conspiracy theory can be broadly defined as a belief that negative events are the result of the nefarious plotting of powerful cabals who are working against the good of society. People who embrace conspiracy theories reject the official explanation for the event, and often view the official version as further proof of the conspiracy. (1)
 
Conspiracy theories tend to be more prevalent in times of widespread uncertainty, anxiety, hardship and social upheaval. Sociological and psychological factors are involved, and research has revealed that people who embrace conspiracy theories often have the following in common:

•    Tend to have a little less education.
•    More often live in societies that have less successful democracies, which influences trust in others and in the authorities.
•    Belong to groups that feel they should have more power and influence.
•    Belong special political organizations or religious groups a little more often.
•    More often use intuition — their "gut feeling" — when making decisions.
•    See connections more often than most people do, also where such connections do not exist, and they are more likely to see intention as the cause of              events.
•    Are a little more narcissistic and paranoid than others.
•    More often obtain their information from social media. (2)
 
As mentioned at the beginning of this article — conspiracies do occur. But just because conspiracies happen doesn't mean that every claim of a conspiracy is true. If something purported to be a conspiracy contains the following elements then it is more likely to be fiction than fact:
 
•    Proof of the conspiracy supposedly emerges from a pattern of "connecting the dots" between events that need not be causally connected. When no evidence supports these connections except the allegation of the conspiracy or when the evidence fits equally well to other causal connections — or to randomness — the conspiracy theory is likely to be false.

•    The agents behind the pattern of the conspiracy would need nearly superhuman power to pull it off. People are usually not nearly so powerful as we think they are.

•    The conspiracy is complex, and its successful completion demands a large number of elements.

•    Similarly, the conspiracy involves large numbers of people who would all need to keep silent about their secrets. The more people involved, the less realistic it becomes.

•    The conspiracy encompasses a grand ambition for control over a nation, economy or political system. If it suggests world domination, the theory is even less likely to be true.

•    The conspiracy theory ratchets up from small events that might be true to much larger, much less probable events.

•    The conspiracy theory assigns portentous, sinister meanings to what are most likely innocuous, insignificant events.

•    The theory tends to commingle facts and speculations without distinguishing between the two and without assigning degrees of probability or of factuality.

•    The theorist is indiscriminately suspicious of all government agencies or private groups, which suggests an inability to nuance differences between true and false conspiracies.

•    The conspiracy theorist refuses to consider alternative explanations, rejecting all disconfirming evidence and blatantly seeking only confirmatory evidence to support what he or she has a priori determined to be the truth. (3)
 
The primary difference between an actual conspiracy and a conspiracy theory comes down to the testability of the hypothesis and the quality of the verifiable evidence supporting it.
 
For those interested in actual conspiracies — including investigative journalists, historians, prosecutors or judges — the existence of a plot is a testable hypothesis. The approach to evidence demands that sources are checked and claims verified. If there is an absence of proof or if evidence contradicts the hypothesis, this is not automatically considered to be part of a cover-up
 
For the conspiracy theorist, the opposite applies. The idea of a plot is not a hypothesis, but a fundamental, unshakeable principle. The possibility that the basic premise of the conspiracy theory may be wrong, or that it might be proven wrong by new evidence, is not even entertained.

Conspiracy theories are essentially irrefutable: logical contradictions, evidence showing the opposite, even the complete absence of proof have no bearing on the conspiratorial explanation because they can always be accounted for in terms of the conspiracy. The lack of proof about a plot, or any positive proof against its existence, is turned around and taken as evidence of the craftiness of the secret cabal behind the conspiracy. It is seen as confirmation of the conspirators’ ability to conceal their machinations. (4)
 
Why do people believe in conspiracy theories? For some people conspiracy theories appear to satisfy three important psychological needs: epistemic, existential and social:
 
Epistemic:
The need for knowledge and certainty in an uncertain world, and the desire for explanations to make sense of things.
 
Existential:
The need to feel safe and secure and the desire for power and autonomy. People who feel powerless and disillusioned are more likely to embrace conspiracy theories. The theory provides meaning. It helps explain why they are powerless and as they see it offers a solution to their situation.

Social:
The desire for a positive self image and empowerment which is associated with belonging to a special group who knows the truth while the rest remain in ignorance. Being with like-minded individuals offers psychological security. (5)
 
Conspiracy theories are not the harmless delusions of cranks. These forms of misinformation can do real world harm. Election fraud conspiracy theories can undermine confidence in democracy and cause life threatening civil unrest. Vaccination conspiracy theories can hinder efforts to end the pandemic and save lives.
 
Social media has played a role in the proliferation of conspiracy theories and must not be used as a trusted source of information. Governments must encourage social media platforms to take responsibility for and counter misinformation on their websites.
 
When seeking information on a particular subject it is best to be guided by the consensus of conclusions among competent experts. These experts must have relevant qualifications from accredited universities relating to the subject under enquiry. If there is a consensus of conclusions among these individuals, then there is no certainty that a contrary opinion is true.

How do we deal with a conspiracy theorist, especially if they are a friend or family member? Generally speaking tread with extreme caution. Remember, conspiracy theories often become part of a person’s sense of identity. A misstep could cause a serious breakdown in your relationship with them. Below are some broad principles. Success, however, is not guaranteed. Indeed, you may have to accept the unpalatable possibility that the person is beyond reach:
 
Keep Calm:
Conspiracy theories have a strong emotional dimension, often involving feelings of resentment, anger and indignation over a perceived or actual injustice. A discussion that degenerates into a shouting and name calling match helps no one.

Don't be Dismissive:
People who embrace conspiracy theories are often worried or anxious. It’s important to understand the cause of their distress through patient listening. Try and establish some common ground.
 
Encourage Critical Thinking:
Believers in conspiracy theories often see themselves as healthy skeptics and researchers. Hitting them with a barrage of facts and figures probably isn't going to work. Rather, try and change what they are skeptical about. It may be more helpful to focus on who is pushing the conspiracy theory and what they hope to gain from it financially or by way of building a cult following.
 
Ask Questions:
Questions may be more effective than assertions. Focus on the tactics and techniques used by people pushing misinformation. Ask questions that encourage the believer to think about what he or she believes, questions that highlight contradictions in the conspiracy theory.
 
Don't Expect Immediate Results:
Believers are resistant to having their beliefs changed. In many instances their beliefs underpin their emotional needs and sense of identity. Relinquishing false beliefs and replacing them with a world view congruent with reality takes time and can often be a painful process. Gentle perseverance and patient understanding is required when dealing with the conspiracy theorist. (6)

Notes

(1)  https://www.britannica.com/topic/conspiracy-theory
(2) https://www.technologynetworks.com/neuroscience/news/these-are-the-mostcommon-traits-of-conspiracy-theorists-345553
(3) https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-conspiracy-theory-director/
(4) https://theconversation.com/how-to-spot-a-conspiracy-theory-when-you-see-one133574
(5) https://www.apa.org/research/action/speaking-of-psychology/ conspiracy-theories
(6) https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-55350794


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